Data reveals that substantial progress has been made toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions even when certain regions of Europe have returned to coal-fired power production.

Fossil Fuel Usage Links to Weather

Based on The Guardian's report, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that EU emissions in November were the lowest they have been in at least 30 years, as were gas utilization, carbon from the electricity sector, and fossil fuel-based electricity production.

After a relatively warm November, the cold weather may cause more people to turn to coal and gas heaters in December. 

The German grid agency said that Germany failed to meet its goals for reducing gas use during the cold spell.

However, it is discovered that the weather only accounts for a fraction of the month-over-month decline in fossil fuel usage.

The warm weather caused a 6% drop in gas demand outside the power sector, largely for heating, and a 26% drop in real demand. Analysts concluded that milder temperatures are responsible for the two percentage points of the 12% decline in electricity usage.

EU Keeps its Climate Commitments

Lauri Myllyvirta, the report's chief researcher, said the statistics disproved claims that the EU had backed down on climate obligations. 

He said that many believe Europe is regressing on climate change because of the Ukraine war, but it is not valid, as coal usage was misunderstood.

After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, certain member nations, especially Germany and Poland, have advocated a limited return to coal for power production. UK coal plants are also on standby.

In November, the EU consumed less coal than in the same month over the prior 30 years. Germany and Poland used less coal than last year, while Finland used more.

Germany and France reduced nuclear production dramatically. Wind and solar output increased in Germany, while France lowered electricity consumption.

This month's cold weather, with temperatures roughly 5C lower than average for the time of year, might hinder efforts to decrease fossil fuel consumption this winter.

Everything is weather-dependent, Myllyvirta remarked. "If we have a big cold spell, we will see more gas burning."

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Downward Trend in Emissions Continues

Early data for December show the trend toward fewer emissions is persisting. 

The first half of December was colder than the year before, yet overall emissions remained substantially below 2021 levels. This suggests that the decrease in gas and electricity usage was not solely due to the weather.

In December, power sector emissions rose again. Myllyvirta said poor nuclear performance and wind conditions kept emissions dropping overall, although lower gas consumption outside the power sector helped.

He noted that Europe's energy revolution demonstrated a shift away from fossil fuels. 

He emphasized that governments should safeguard their most vulnerable communities from abrupt energy price spikes. Europe could take the edge itself more on Russian energy and fossil resources but should do so fairly.

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