New data from GSMA Intelligence (GSMAi) unveiled at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2024 showed that the surge in 5G connections is expected to continue, with projections indicating that by 2030, they will reach a staggering 5.5 billion, representing over half (51%) of all mobile connections.
5G's Dominance
According to the GSMAi report, the dominance of 5G as the preferred connectivity technology is anticipated to strengthen further, with estimates suggesting it will constitute 56% of mobile connections by the decade's end.
The rollout of 5G has been notably swift, surpassing the one billion connection milestone by the end of 2022 and surging to 1.6 billion connections by the end of 2023. This upward trajectory is anticipated to culminate in a remarkable 5.5 billion connections by 2030.
Presently, 261 operators across 101 countries have launched commercial 5G services, with over 90 operators from 64 markets committed to forthcoming rollouts. Among the 261 commercial services, 47 are delivered by 5G Standalone (SA) networks, with an additional 89 planned deployments soon.
These forthcoming deployments are expected to leverage network slicing, ultra-reliable low-latency communications support, and the simplified 5G SA network architecture, according to GSMAi.
Realization of IoT
The proliferation of available 5G SA networks, coupled with enhanced support for private and dedicated networks, is poised to facilitate a vast array of connected devices, furthering the realization of the global Internet of Things (IoT) vision for enterprises.
Notably, the enterprise segment currently accounts for 10.7 billion IoT connections, surpassing consumer connections. This momentum is forecasted to persist, with enterprise connections projected to more than double to 38.5 billion by 2030.
Looking beyond 5G SA, the advent of 5G-Advanced with 3GPP Release 18 is anticipated to mark another pivotal milestone in IoT delivery. This development is expected to stimulate new investments in 5G throughout 2024 and into 2025.
Over half of operators foresee commencing 5G-Advanced deployments within a year following the commercial availability of 5G-Advanced solutions, bolstered by priority use cases such as 5G multicast services and low-cost IoT support.
GSMAi anticipates a fourfold increase in mobile data traffic by 2030, with expansions in 5G coverage and capacity taking a significant role. Monthly global mobile data traffic per connection is also forecasted to surge from 12.8 GB in 2023 to 47.9 GB in 2030.
Generative AI Growth
With 56% of operators currently testing applications, the escalating adoption of Generative AI (GenAI) is poised to propel growth further. This trend is expected to be driven by applications such as GenAI-enabled chatbots for customer service and the expansion of AI-generated video and music content.
Peter Jarich, head of GSMAi, highlighted the evolving landscape of 5G use cases, emphasizing opportunities beyond enhanced mobile broadband (EMBB) and consumer requirements.
"The early success of 5G was driven by enhanced mobile broadband (EMBB) and EMBB-related network traffic requirements. Yet, while consumer requirements will continue their trajectory, we're now seeing use cases beyond that," Jarich said in a statement.
"Opportunities are now appearing in areas including API monetisation and 5G RedCap for enterprise IoT - all supported by 5G-Advanced and 5G SA networks. 5G SA brings home 5G's early promise, particularly where slicing, low-latency and massive IoT capabilities tied to enterprise service needs can be met. 5G-Advanced will only extend that further," he added.
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