The supply of insulin will not be enough for patients with type 2 diabetes around the world by 2030, warns a new study.

According to the calculation of Sanjay Basu from Stanford University in California, the number of people who will need insulin to treat type 2 diabetes will climb by 20 percent in the next decade. An estimated 40 million people will not have the medicine they need to control the disease.

The findings were published in the journal Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology on Tuesday, Nov. 20.

Insulin Shortage Predicted

Basu and colleagues developed a microsimulation using data from the International Diabetes Federation, which covers 221 countries. They estimated the number of people with type 2 diabetes who would need to use insulin for the next 12 years.

They found that patients who will be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes will increase from 405.6 million in 2018 to 510.8 million in 2030. Not all diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, however, will need insulin; only 79 million people by 2030 would need to take insulin.

The study says that if access does not improve in the coming years, only 30 million will receive insulin to control their type 2 diabetes.

"These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are highly inadequate compared to projected need, particularly in Africa and Asia, and more efforts should be devoted to overcoming this looming health challenge," said Basu.

Insulin reduces a patient's risk of having more serious complications due to high blood sugar. Untreated diabetes could lead to heart and kidney diseases, blindness, amputation, and stroke.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of 2017, more than 100 million people in the United States have prediabetes and diabetes. The rate of new diagnosis is steadily rising.

Type 2 Diabetes Causes And Symptoms

Type 2 diabetes is the most common form of diabetes. It occurs when the muscle, liver, and fat cells in the body refuse to respond to insulin, a hormone that regulates blood sugar. Type 2 diabetes is caused by several factors including unhealthy diet and inactive lifestyle as well as genetics.

People who are overweight and obese are more likely to be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, according to the National Institute of Health.

Symptoms of type 2 diabetes include increased thirst and urination, increased hunger, fatigue, blurred vision, sores that take time to heal, numbness and tingling, and unexplained weight loss.

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