Robin Li, CEO of Chinese tech giant Baidu, believes that artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence is more than a decade away. This view contrasts sharply with predictions from industry leaders like Elon Musk, who anticipate that artificial general intelligence (AGI) could emerge much sooner.
Contrasting Views on AGI Development
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Baidu Chairman and CEO Robin Li speaks at a ceremony at the Baidu headquarters in Beijing on December 17, 2014. Baidu, China's leading search engine, and ride sharing company Uber announced a strategic investment and cooperation agreement on December 17.
AGI refers to AI that matches or exceeds human intelligence. While Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicts AGI could be achieved by 2026, and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggests it might arrive in the "reasonably close-ish future," Li remains skeptical. He points out that current AI models, despite their advancements, are still far from achieving human-like intelligence.
"AGI is still quite a few years away. Today, a lot of people talk about AGI, [and] they're saying ... it's probably two years away, it's probably, you know, five years away. I think [it] is more than 10 years away," Li said during a Wednesday talk at the VivaTech conference in Paris.
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The Pace of AI Development
Li expresses concern over the perceived slow pace of AI development. According to the 55-year-old tech billionaire, he fears that AI is not improving "fast enough."
He adds that most people are impressed with the way the technology has been evolving for the past years. However, he clarifies that it's still not the kind of fast that he expects for AI. Instead, he describes the progress as "too slow."
Despite the rapid advancements seen recently, Li argues that the progress toward AGI is still insufficient.
Baidu's AI Innovations
Baidu has been at the forefront of AI development in China. Last year, the company launched its ChatGPT-style chatbot, Ernie, based on its large language model. Chinese tech firms, including Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, are investing heavily in developing their AI models, much like their U.S. counterparts.
Differences in AI Development Approaches
Li highlights a significant difference in the focus of AI development between China and the West. In the U.S. and Europe, companies aim to develop the most powerful and cutting-edge foundational models.
In contrast, Chinese companies are more focused on the practical applications of AI technology. Despite this, Li notes the absence of a "killer app" for AI that can achieve widespread daily use.
The Search for AI's 'Killer App'
According to CNBC, Li compares the current state of AI applications to the mobile app era, where apps like Instagram, YouTube, and TikTok have hundreds of millions to billions of daily active users. He points out that no AI-native app has yet achieved such widespread adoption.
Li says that in the present age of modern technology, daily active users could hit one billion. However, the numbers are not the same with AI native apps. He adds that it's also non-existent in the US, China, and even in Europe.
Future of AI Applications
Li poses the question of what the right form for AI-native apps will be and which of these apps will be able to reach the 100 million user mark. The development and adoption of such applications will be critical in determining the future impact of AI on daily life.
While some industry leaders predict AGI is just around the corner, Baidu CEO Robin Li provides a more cautious outlook, suggesting that truly intelligent AI is still more than a decade away. The ongoing advancements in AI technology and the search for groundbreaking applications will continue to shape the growing AI industry.
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