Expectation Gap: What's Really Happening in the IT Job Market in 2025

The IT job market isn't just cooling down—it's undergoing a quiet structural transformation. Over the past two years, companies worldwide—from major platforms to niche services—have been automating workflows and reshaping teams. In 2023, for instance, CraftPix.net, an international platform for distributing game assets, cut up to 50% of tasks previously handled by junior developers by integrating AI into its production cycle. According to its co-founder and CEO Anton Tyshchenko, this was part of a broader optimization—but far from the only sign of a coming shift.

What Changed Since 2022

In the summer of 2022, the IT job market began to contract—slowly but steadily. While overall labor market figures remained stable, tech saw a clear downturn. What triggered the shift?

Mass layoffs at big tech companies — Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, and others began downsizing, reversing the overhiring of the pandemic years.
A sharp drop in venture capital — After the U.S. Fed raised interest rates (March and June 2022), risk appetite vanished, and startup funding plummeted.
The end of the remote-work boom — As demand for digital services normalized, companies began trimming "excess" tech personnel.

All three events converged in mid-2022, and the consequences are clearly visible in FRED's job data.

Job Data Reality: What FRED Tells Us

At first glance, the U.S. labor market seems to be recovering. According to FRED, the overall Indeed Job Postings Index as of June 13, 2025, stands at 105.82, slightly above pre-COVID levels (100 = February 2020).

But sector-specific numbers reveal a deeper problem:

Scientific R&D: [70.76] — more than 30% below pre-COVID levels.
Software development: [65.48] — half the 2022 peak and well below 2020.
IT operations and support: [68.29] — a 30–40% decline.

While the general market looks stable, tech is in a sustained systemic downturn—with the drop beginning in mid-2022.

Scientific Research and Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States (2020-02-01 to 2025-06-13)Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States (2020-02-01 to 2025-06-13)IT Operations and Helpdesk Job Postings on Indeed in the United States (2020-02-01 to 2025-06-13)

Reddit: What Job Seekers Are Really Saying

In a popular Reddit thread, users compared their job search experiences between 2023 and 2024. One user shared that after being laid off, they submitted 210 applications over five months and received just two interview invites—compared to 2023, when 100 applications yielded nine interviews and one offer. Their final update: 784 applications → 12 interviews → 5 final rounds → 1 offer—and this is someone with director-level experience.

Main takeaways from the discussion:

The market is tougher: success rates are way down.
ATS optimization is a must: decorative resume formats with icons and columns hurt visibility.
Networking is crucial in a saturated market.
Reset your expectations: expect to send 1,000+ applications and treat each interview as practice.

Emotional Fallout: Silence, Anxiety, Burnout

Studies confirm that ghosting—when companies simply stop replying—has psychological effects:

A 2023 study from the University of Mississippi, "Ghosting from the workplace: The impact of feedback (or lack thereof) on applicants' psychological needs satisfaction" (Wood, Leckfor, Wicks & Hales, N = 554), published via Routledge Open Research, compared three groups: ghosted, generic rejection, and personalized rejection. The ghosted group reported lower satisfaction of basic psychological needs—belonging, esteem, and control—despite a lack of statistical significance. The authors conclude: "ghosting experience still can hurt" and call for more research.

In short: even a brief rejection message can prevent candidates from feeling excluded and undervalued.

Why You're Not Getting a Reply: Algorithmic Silence

The number one reason candidates never hear back? Their resumes are never seen. Over 90% of major companies use ATS (Applicant Tracking Systems), which auto-reject noncompliant resumes.

If your resume has tables, icons, or fancy formatting, it might be filtered out before a human sees it.

Checking for ATS compatibility and using tailored, clean, free Google Docs resume templates won't guarantee success, but they do increase your odds of being seen.

New Rules of the Game

Automation, shrinking junior roles, and pandemic-era hiring spikes have exposed IT job market vulnerabilities. The old "just apply and wait" strategy is no longer viable. Today, specialists need to: