Global debt issuance tied to artificial intelligence is on track to more than double to nearly $570 billion in 2026, according to a Morgan Stanley forecast reported by Reuters on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. For bond investors, including the index and target-date funds inside ordinary 401(k) accounts, the AI buildout is no longer just a stock story; it is becoming the largest single position in the investment-grade credit market.
Nearly $570 Billion in 2026: What Morgan Stanley's Forecast Counts
Morgan Stanley estimates that AI-related issuers had already sold nearly $236 billion of debt globally by May 31, 2026, roughly four times the amount raised over the same stretch of 2025, per Quartz's account of the Reuters report. With hyperscaler capital spending projected to cross $1 trillion in 2027, the bank expects the pace of new bond sales to accelerate through the second half of this year, pushing the 2026 total past $500 billion to nearly $570 billion, more than twice last year's figure.
The bank flagged two structural shifts inside that headline number. Hyperscalers are increasingly selling bonds outside the U.S. dollar market to diversify their funding base, and the sheer volume of new supply has become the dominant force moving bond prices even as the broader economic backdrop holds up. Among semiconductor companies, Morgan Stanley said, deal structures are migrating toward amortizing arrangements with nearer-term maturities. Those structures repay principal gradually over the life of the bond rather than in a single payment at maturity, a schedule that more closely tracks how quickly AI hardware loses value.
Who Is Borrowing to Build AI Data Centers?
The issuer list starts with the biggest names in technology. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle collectively sold $121 billion of U.S. corporate bonds in 2025, against an average of $28 billion per year between 2020 and 2024, according to Bank of America data cited by Quartz. Alphabet announced an $85 billion raise for its AI expansion and sold a rare 100-year bond in February 2026, ANI reported from the Reuters story.
Amazon alone illustrates how far the borrowing now reaches. The company issued C$14 billion (about $10.04 billion) of Canadian dollar notes, a record for Canada's "maple bond" market, and raised 14.5 billion euros (about $16.88 billion) in an eight-part deal that ranks as the largest euro corporate bond sale ever, per the Reuters report. On June 10, 2026, Sherwood News reported that Amazon had also secured a $17.5 billion credit line arranged by Citibank, disclosed in an SEC filing, as it works through roughly $200 billion in planned 2026 capital spending and a $364 billion cloud backlog.
Smaller infrastructure builders are tapping the same window. Hut 8 closed a $4.25 billion bond on June 10, 2026 to fund its Beacon Point AI data center in Texas, Blockspace Media reported, and a day earlier Keel Infrastructure closed a $458 million convertible notes deal for its own data center buildout. The pipeline keeps refilling too: on the same day as Morgan Stanley's forecast, The Information reported that OpenAI is in advanced talks to lease a planned 10-gigawatt Ohio campus whose full buildout could cost at least $500 billion.
Why Equity and Operating Cash Are No Longer Enough
The math behind the borrowing is stark. Hyperscaler capital expenditures in 2026 are on pace to consume close to 100% of operating cash flows, compared with a 10-year average of 40%, according to UBS figures cited by Quartz. Companies that once funded data centers out of free cash flow now face annual budgets larger than that cash flow, and selling new shares is costlier for management teams than issuing investment-grade paper at current spreads. Bond markets fill the gap.
Wednesday's trading showed what the equity alternative costs. Super Micro Computer announced $7.0 billion of equity and equity-linked financing on June 10, 2026 to buy components for roughly $39 billion in AI server orders received in recent weeks, and its shares tumbled more than 17% by late morning ET. For issuers that can still sell investment-grade bonds, debt sidesteps that dilution penalty entirely.
The cumulative result has already redrawn the credit landscape. By October 2025, AI-linked debt had reached $1.2 trillion, making it the largest segment of the investment-grade market and overtaking U.S. banks as the biggest sector in the JPMorgan U.S. Liquid index, according to M&G Investments figures cited by Quartz. A bond benchmark long anchored by financial institutions is now anchored by data center spending.
What Happens to AI Bonds If AI Revenue Lags the Borrowing?
The central risk is leverage rising faster than revenue. S&P recently warned that Amazon's "leverage will increase substantially" and that the company will likely post negative free operating cash flow over the next two years to support its data center buildout, per Sherwood News. If AI revenue disappoints while capital spending peaks in 2026 and 2027, issuers would face wider credit spreads on hundreds of billions of dollars in future refinancing, and the supply wave Morgan Stanley describes would arrive in a far less forgiving market.
The macro backdrop is not helping borrowers either. The May 2026 Consumer Price Index, released the morning of June 10, put annual inflation at 4.2%, the highest reading since April 2023, CNBC reported, a number that pressures the yields at which all of this new AI paper must price. Concentration compounds the issue: when a single sector dominates an index, a sector-specific shock behaves like a market-wide shock for anyone holding the benchmark.
The exposure reaches well beyond Wall Street credit desks. Because major bond indexes are weighted by market value, every eligible new AI bond increases its issuer's share of the index, and passive funds tracking those benchmarks must buy proportionally more. Target-date funds, which held about $4.8 trillion in assets at the end of 2025, own those bond index funds, meaning many retirement savers now carry indirect AI infrastructure debt without ever choosing it, as Quartz noted.
None of this settles the larger argument over whether the spending will pay off, a question TechTimes examined on June 10, 2026 in its analysis of the trillion-dollar question splitting Wall Street and Silicon Valley. What Morgan Stanley's forecast adds is a hard number for the supply side: nearly $570 billion of new AI debt looking for buyers this year, with the heaviest issuance still ahead.
This article is not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Morgan Stanley count as AI-related debt?
The forecast covers debt raised globally by companies funding AI infrastructure, including hyperscalers such as Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle, semiconductor firms, and data center developers, in both dollar and non-dollar markets, according to the Reuters report. The bank puts the 2026 total at nearly $570 billion, more than double 2025.
How much AI debt has been issued in 2026 so far?
Nearly $236 billion had been issued globally through May 31, 2026, about four times the amount raised over the same period last year, Morgan Stanley estimates. The bank expects issuance to accelerate in the second half of the year.
Why are profitable tech giants borrowing instead of using their own cash?
Hyperscaler capital spending in 2026 is on pace to consume close to 100% of operating cash flows, versus a 10-year average of 40%, according to UBS. Debt lets these companies keep building data centers without draining cash reserves or diluting shareholders through new stock sales.
What happens to AI bonds if AI revenue disappoints?
Issuers would face rising leverage and wider credit spreads just as refinancing needs grow, and S&P has already warned that Amazon will likely post negative free operating cash flow for two years. Because AI-linked debt is now the largest sector in major investment-grade indexes, losses would also flow through passive bond funds held in many retirement accounts.
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