A recent study by ETH Zurich reveals that without immediate political intervention in favor of zero-emission technologies, diesel will continue dominating the heavy truck sector's power source well into 2035, TechXplore reports.
The findings not only carry implications for the industry but also for the planet's fight against climate change, as heavy goods vehicles account for nearly one-third of annual global emissions in the transport sector.
ETH Zurich's research team, led by Professor Tobias Schmidt, analyzed the prospects of various technologies driving heavy trucks by 2035. The results are concerning, showing that a significant portion of these vehicles will persistently rely on diesel or liquefied natural gas (LNG) without substantial policy shifts toward decarbonization.
Operating Costs Hold the Key
Crucially, the study dissected the costs associated with different technologies, focusing on overall lifetime expenses. This comprehensive analysis considered procurement, operating costs, and infrastructure investments.
The result is clear: battery-powered vans and medium goods vehicles already outcompete diesel counterparts in many European countries, thanks to their lower operating costs.
However, heavy trucks weighing approximately 32 metric tons and covering substantial distances remain a stronghold for diesel and LNG.
The costs of green alternatives, especially hydrogen trucks, outweigh their benefits. Switzerland is an exception due to the country's distance-related heavy vehicle fee exemption for emission-free vehicles over 3.5 metric tons.
Bessie Noll, the study's lead author, highlights the pivotal role of fuel prices and toll expenses in determining whether CO2-free trucks can compete. The results indicate that battery-powered vehicles have a considerable operating cost advantage.
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Market Share Projections and Policy Implications
The researchers paint a clearer picture of the market share projections for 2035.
Light and medium goods vehicles are on track to embrace zero-emission technologies, with new battery-powered vehicles expected to dominate the global market share by more than 50%. They might even command up to 70% of the market in Europe and China.
However, the outlook is bleaker for heavy trucks weighing over 32 metric tons. The global market share of new zero-emission heavy trucks in this category will likely remain below 10%.
Schmidt and his team firmly assert that without robust policies supporting green powertrain technologies, diesel engines will continue to power most heavy trucks in 2035.
Hydrogen's Fading Prospects
The Zurich study underlines that hydrogen's prospects are dimming while battery-powered vehicles are set to lead the charge.
Hydrogen-powered trucks are deemed too expensive in most regions, except the European Union, where they may gain some market share due to expected subsidies for green hydrogen. However, even some European truck companies say that it is too costly.
One critical factor favoring batteries over hydrogen is the amount of renewable electricity required. The production, distribution, and conversion of green hydrogen into electricity increase operating costs.
Furthermore, battery-powered trucks have the upper hand in economies of scale. With a larger market share and simpler technology, batteries are expected to lead the way, leaving hydrogen behind in the race toward electrification.
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