The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports that the algal bloom observed in the western portion of Lake Erie this year could potentially end up as one of the largest and most devastating to ever occur in recent history.

Researchers from the environmental agency predict that the effects of such a massive cyanobacterial bloom could include an increase in cost for local governments to treat water for drinking and an increase in infection risk, especially in areas with high concentration. The formation of algae in the water could also cause a nuisance for boaters.

Algae blooms occur when freshwater cyanobacteria, the blue-green algae, hit their growing season and bloom at the same time, releasing tiny levels of microcystin, which is a toxin produced by the cyanobacteria that can harm the liver.

The NOAA experts believe that these effects will vary depending on the location and the severity of winds. The algal blooms will enter their peak by September.

To determine the potential impact of the algal bloom in Lake Erie, the researchers used an ensemble modelling approach.

The findings showed that the bloom will reach an 8.7 rating on the severity index with a range between 8.1 and 9.5, potentially making this year's algal bloom more devastating than the previous year's 6.5 bloom.

Researchers, however, fear that the algal bloom could equal or even surpass the record-setting bloom of 2013, which is considered as the second worst in this century.

NOAA lead researcher Dr. Richard Stumpf said that while the agency predicts a massive bloom, the majority of Lake Erie will remain fine most of the time. He explained that the algal bloom will progress from west to east in the lake's western basin starting this month.

Stumpf emphasized that the effects of the bloom will depend on winds, and that it will reach its peak later in the year, generally in September. Contributing factors to the bloom include rainfall and its related runoff that carries nitrogen and phosporus into the water, along with generally warmer temperatures and Lake Erie's relatively shallow depth.

Assistant administrator Dr. Holly Bamford of NOAA's National Ocean Service pointed out that the report is the fourth one the agency has issued that discusses the potential effects of algal bloom in Lake Erie.

She said that the NOAA's initiative in ecological forecasting, including the seasonal forecast for Lake Erie, the weekly harmful algal blooms (HAB) bulletin and the experimental HABs Tracker, provides public health officials and water managers with scientific information that could help them make critical decisions regarding the health protection for their communities.

The program also serves to inform communities about the environmental effects of algal blooms, as well as to lessen the potential impacts of such occurrences to recreational activities that are viewed as an important part of the economy in the region.   

The seasonal forecast for 2015 makes use of models that help translate the loading of spring nutrients into perceived algal blooms in Lake Erie's western basin.

Photo: Eutrophication & Hypoxia | Flickr